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Plan Success (Monte Carlo)

See the probability your portfolio lasts through retirement using random market return simulations.

How It Works

A Monte Carlo simulation runs hundreds or thousands of possible market paths. Each path uses random annual returns (based on your expected return and volatility). Your portfolio is drawn down by your chosen withdrawal each year. The success rate is the percentage of those paths where you still have money left at the end. No simulation can predict the real future—this tool shows you the odds under your assumptions.

Tip: There’s no single “correct” expected return—treat it as an assumption to test. If you’re unsure where to start, for a balanced portfolio (roughly 60–70% stocks and 30–40% bonds), try 5%, 6%, and 7% and compare the results. Include volatility (for example, a 10–15% standard deviation) to reflect sequence-of-returns risk. Because the simulation updates instantly, comparing scenarios takes just a click.

Your Plan

Starting Portfolio
$
Your portfolio’s value today. If you set a future Withdrawals Start Date, the model grows it untouched until withdrawals begin.
Withdrawal Method
Fixed = a set dollar amount each year. Percent = a share of the current balance, so income floats with the market.
Annual Withdrawal
$
First-year withdrawal. Optionally grow with inflation specified.
Withdrawal Timing
How the annual amount is taken. Monthly is more realistic and slightly more favorable.
Inflation Rate for Withdrawals (%)2.7%
0–10%. Set to 0 for flat withdrawals. Typical U.S. ~3%.
Withdrawals Start DateStarts now
When withdrawals begin. Portfolio grows untouched until this date. Defaults to today.
Years to Model27 yrs
Years of withdrawals after the start date (e.g. 30 for a 30-year retirement)
Expected Annual Return (%)6%
Long-term average return assumption
Volatility / Std Dev (%)12%
Typical stock portfolio: ~10–15%
Number of Simulations1,000 sims
More = smoother result, slower run

🔒 See Your Complete Retirement Timeline

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